MEN’S RUGBY WORLD CUP 2027 QUALIFICATION SCENARIOS

Two rounds of the Asia Rugby Emirates Men’s Championship have now been completed, with the final matches in the four-team round-robin scheduled for the weekend of 4 and 5 July. 

For this year, the Asia Rugby Championship winners will secure a spot at Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia – thanks to automatic qualification to the newly expanded 24-team tournament. The runners-up will enter a repechage route later in 2025 for a final World Cup spot (details below).

ASIA RUGBY EMIRATES MEN'S CHAMPIONSHIP TABLE (After 2 Rounds of Matches)

Points System 
Win = 4 points / Draw = 2 points / Lose = 0 points
Lose by 7 points or less = 1 bonus point
Score 4+ tries in a game (available to losing and winning teams) = 1 bonus point

Hong Kong China Men’s XVs have secured maximum points to date, thanks to two bonus point wins: first, 43-10 away to the United Arab Emirates in Dubai, followed by a 78-7 home win against Sri Lanka at the Kai Tak Youth Sports Ground. All eyes are now on Incheon ahead of the team’s final match against Korea on Saturday 5 July. 

Hong Kong China are currently on top of the league standings on 10 points, with Korea in second place on 7 points. Hong Kong China go into the match knowing that a win or a draw will see them remain in first place and lift the trophy. 

If Korea win the match there are three possible scenarios at the top of the table:

1. Korea can win the match and leapfrog Hong Kong China into an outright first place. This could be by 11 points to 10 points (neither team picks up a bonus point) or by 12 points to 11 points (both teams pick up one bonus point)
2. A Korea win can also see the teams finish level on points. This could be 11 points each (Korea win without a bonus point and Hong Kong China pick up one bonus point) or 12 points each (Korea win with a bonus point and Hong Kong China pick up two bonus points). In this instance the head-to-head record will be used as a tie-breaker and Korea will prevail
3. A Korea win could still allow Hong Kong China to finish in an outright first place. This would be by Korea finishing on 11 points and Hong Kong China finishing on 12 points (i.e. Korea win without a bonus point and Hong Kong China pick up two bonus points). For this to happen, Hong Kong China would need to score four or more tries and lose by 7 points or less, while Korea score less than four tries

Hong Kong China are already guaranteed a second-place finish, as the UAE are on 5 points and can only reach the 10 points Hong Kong China already have (and would still finish behind Hong Kong China on the head-to-head record). Korea could slip to a third-place finish if they lose and the UAE win.

With a win over Sri Lanka, the UAE could still leapfrog Korea into second place and enter the Final Qualification route.

Sri Lanka are on 2 points but could still finish third in the table if they win against the UAE. This is significant, as the fourth-place team will have to play in an Asia Rugby Emirates Men’s Championship Play-Off against the best team in Division 2 in order to retain their place in the competition for 2026.

Runners-Up Repechage Route

This year’s Asia Rugby Men’s Championship runners-up will take part in an Asia/Africa Play-Off against the second-best team in the Rugby Africa Men’s Cup 2025 (date TBD). The winner of that match then progresses to the Final Qualification Tournament in Dubai, UAE, from 8-18 November. This four-team, round-robin format will reward the winners with the final place at the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027.